With less than a month until Black Friday, this year’s holiday retail landscape is looking decidedly different to years gone by.

Already, numerous bricks and mortar retailers have indicated they will be extending and shifting many of their major sales online, while customers are noting they will commence their holiday shopping earlier this year.

So, let’s look at what’s unfolding for the holiday season ahead, including the trends that will remain long after 2020.

With peak shopping season fast approaching, US retailers are optimistic, with most expecting a revenue increase of 28.7 per cent on 2018, according to a recent survey by Yieldify.

Encompassing major shopping events like Black Friday, Cyber Monday and the six-week lead-up to Christmas, the upcoming peak retail period is expected to draw a line under what has otherwise been a turbulent retail year.

Here’s an insight into what retailers expect for the holiday shopping season in Quarter 4, 2019.

Great expectations

Yieldify notes retailers are overwhelmingly positive about the period ahead, with many already implementing their marketing plans for discounts, deals and special items.

Their findings indicate:

• US retailers expect an average revenue increase of 29 per cent for Black Friday

• Retailers are tipping a 22 per cent increase on average revenue for Cyber Monday

• An increase in revenue of 28.6 per cent is anticipated for the holiday shopping season as a whole

• Over two-thirds (72.9 per cent) said they expect a revenue increase of 10 per cent or more on year on-year for the holiday season

Black Friday

Taking place on November 29, this year’s Black Friday is expected to kick the peak retail period off with a bang.

It is also no longer seen as a one-day sales event, with 85 per cent of retailers planning discounts and deals over an extended period.

This year 92.8 per cent of retailers are expected to take part in the Black Friday retail bonanza, offering an average discount of 37.3 per cent.

• 50.6 per cent of retailers will be offering Black Friday discounts across all items

• 32.2 per cent will be offering limited discounting

• 8.4 per cent will offer a promotion but no discount

• 2.5 per cent will be taking part in another way

• 6.3 per cent indicated they will not be participating

Meanwhile, the report notes fashion brands are the most likely to discount, and multi-channel retailers are more likely to take part overall.

“Pureplay e-commerce brands are the most likely to skip Black Friday, with more than 1 in 5 (22 per cent) choosing to give it a miss,” Yieldify says.

“Only 65 per cent of e-commerce pureplays who are participating in Black Friday will discount, versus 85 per cent of multichannel retailers.”

Cyber Monday

In 2019, Cyber Monday will be held on December 2, and 91.8 per cent of retailers are planning to participate, offering an average discount of 32.6 per cent.

Of those:

• 44.4 per cent of retailers will be offering discounts across all items

• 35.5 per cent will be offering limited discounting

• 9.4 per cent will offer a promotion but no discount

• 1.5 per cent will be taking part in another way

• 9.2 per cent have indicated they will not be participating

Holiday shopping season

The high-revenue holiday shopping season is an event few retailers look likely to miss with 98.3 per cent of survey respondents indicating they were planning to take part, offering an average discount of 32 per cent.

Of those:

• 57.6 per cent of retailers will be offering discounts across all items

• 27.3 per cent will be offering limited discounting

• 11.1 per cent will offer a promotion but no discount

• 2.2 per cent will be taking part in another way

• Just 1.7 per cent have indicated they will not be participating

“One of the most interesting points to note here is that the highest levels of discount activity come after Black Friday, during the holiday shopping season,” Yieldify notes.

“85 per cent are planning to offer some money off, and almost 60 per cent plan to discount across all items.”

Let the preparations begin

The report goes on to explain many retailers have already begun to prepare for the holiday season ahead.

As of early August, 77 per cent had begun creating their marketing campaigns. In fact, more than half of US marketers (52.5 per cent) and multi-channel retailers (52.6 per cent) started way back in July.

Meanwhile, 12.4 per cent will commence work on their campaigns in September, 6.4 per cent will begin in October, and 1.7 per cent will start in November.

And when it comes to launch date, August 27 is the approximate date most retailers intend to launch their Black Friday and Cyber Monday campaigns, while promotions for the holiday season are expected to commence on September 9, 109.5 days before Christmas.

As the nation gears up for the retail bonanza that is Black Friday, 2018 is tipped to be a bumper year and retailers with both a physical and online presence look set to be the biggest beneficiaries.

According to a new survey from the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), this year consumers plan to spend an average of $5,54.90 across the Thanksgiving Weekend, with 46 per cent of shoppers looking to fork out more than they did last year.

So, as retailers ready for the season of shopping, here’s what you need to know…

A big year for retail

As consumer confidence increases, so too will the urge to spend, the ICSC predicts. They note consumer confidence is now at its highest in two decades and as a result, shoppers will be keen to open their wallets and spend extra this year.

In total consumers plan to spend an average of $554.90 across the Thanksgiving Weekend, with almost a third of that ($207.30) dedicated to Christmas gifts.

Meanwhile, The Balance explains November 23 will kick off what is traditionally the busiest period of the retail calendar with 30 per cent of all retail sales occurring between Black Friday and Christmas.

The entire period is set to see $715 billion injected into the economy – three per cent more than in 2017.

Digital or physical?

Recent years have been dominated by discussion that online was killing physical retail as consumers sought to source the best Black Friday bargains online.

Last year, Retail Dive noted walk-in traffic was down one per cent on the year prior. But according to the ICSC, it is omnichannel retailers that stand to do best.

They note 93 per cent of consumers are planning to spend with retailers that have both a physical and a digital presence.

The trend will be driven by the “buy online, pick-up in-store” push, and that subsequent store visit will likely result in welcome additional spending.

The ICSC states 77 per cent of consumers indicate they are likely to spend additional money at that store or adjacent retailers.

“It’s clear that having a strong physical and digital presence continues to drive sales – and Black Friday is no exception,” said Tom McGee, President and CEO of the International Council of Shopping Centers. “This year’s survey results once again show that consumers want options and will shop both in-store and online throughout the holiday season.”

Meanwhile, 71 per cent of shoppers are actively planning to visit bricks and mortar stores, with the Millennial generation leading the charge. Eighty-three per cent of Millennial shoppers indicated they would be spending at shopping centres or malls.

Biggest shoplifting day of the year

With more foot traffic in retail outlets than any other day of the year, retail theft also experiences a rise.

In fact, Fortune notes Black Friday is the single day when most thefts occur in general, with statistics rising by up to 28 per cent.

In retail, the rise is fuelled by a combination of packed stores, laden shelves, busy sales associates, and ample opportunity which leads to spike in shoplifting and fraud-related crimes.

So how do you protect your store?

Used by 73 per cent of retailers, according to the latest Global Retail Theft Barometer, electronic article surveillance remains one of the most popular and effective loss prevention strategies.

Using antenna and security tags, it allows sales associates to be automatically notified by alarm that a product or merchandise is leaving the store.

But its effectiveness is only as good as its implementation.

In advance of the busiest period of the retail year, store management should ensure:

• Security tags or labels are fitted to all their most targeted merchandise

• The right type of tag or label is fitted to the right type of merchandise (clothing tags for apparel, lanyards and tags for fashion accessories like shoes and handbags, optical tags for eye wear etc)

• Tags are of a sufficient locking strength, with Superlock magnetic strength considered the minimum standard.

Meanwhile, further loss prevention strategies include:

• Good staff screening – Ensure all staff, including Black Friday casuals, have been reference-checked thoroughly.

• Staff training – All staff should be trained on proper store procedures that include meeting and greeting customers, and watching for key signs of suspicious behavior.

• Secure store layout – Ensure high-value items are kept within easy monitoring of staff, and there is a clear line of sight to all areas of the floor.

• Secure cupboards – Provide your staff with easy yet secure access to storage cupboards.

• Use your EAS – All items should be tagged with tags of sufficient magnetic strength, while smaller items need to be labelled. If you are finding tags removed, your EAS is telling you security needs to be improved.

• Use your RFID – RFID gives you an insight into stock levels, loss, where an item is in the chain of supply, and inventory holdings. Use it to ensure you have adequate items on hand while balancing the issue of too much stock that leads to loss through markdowns.

• Employ surveillance – Visible surveillance like CCTV cameras acts as a direct deterrent against theft.

If all predictions are correct, this year’s Black Friday sales promise to be a boon for the retail industry. The art of maximizing the surge in sales comes down to ensuring the stock that stands to lure interest is also protected against opportunistic thieves.