Spending has started for holiday season 2020

The latest NRF data found of the 8362 adult consumers surveyed, most had already started purchasing gifts.

Fifty-nine per cent indicated they had already bought items by the first week in November, which is an increase of 21 per cent on a decade ago.

Meanwhile, 42 per cent noted this commencement of holiday spending was earlier for them personally than in years gone by.

That said, there’s still a significant amount of shopping to go. Only 26 per cent of shoppers have ticked off every item on their holiday shopping list.

What shoppers are buying

The NRF had previously forecast that on average consumers intend to spend $997.79 on gifts, holiday items such as decorations and food, and additional “non-gift” purchases for themselves and their families.

This is a decrease of about $50 in 2019, but already trends are emerging about the gifts that shoppers are after.

Clothing and accessories topped the list of popular gifts, with 54 per cent of people indicating these would be among their gifts to others.

Gift cards were the second most popular item, with 47 per cent of people intending to buy these.

“Similar to last year, consumers plan to purchase between three and four gift cards, for an average spend of $163 per consumer. Total spending on gift cards is expected to reach $27.5 billion,” the NRF said.

Toys came in at third position with 37 per cent of shoppers seeking these out as a gift.

When it comes to the most popular toys of 2020, the survey found LEGOS and PlayStation ranked among the top items for boys and girls, while cars and trucks, Hot Wheels and video games were also popular gifts for boys, and Barbie and dolls remain the top toys for girls.

Meanwhile, 34 per cent of shoppers intend to purchase books and other media, and food/candy is on the gift list for a further 28 per cent of survey respondents.

A shift away from cash

This year the way shoppers are paying for items has seen a shift away from cash as shoppers turn online to make their purchases and also avoid using cash instore.

The NRF found credit cards (42 per cent) remain the top form of payment consumers plan to use this holiday season, followed closely by debit cards (41 per cent).

“Just 15 per cent of consumers listed cash as a top form of payment during the holidays, the lowest in the survey’s history and likely related to the coronavirus,” the NRF noted.

Half (49 per cent) of shoppers plan to use an alternative form of payment such as PayPal, Apple Pay, Samsung Pay or Venmo.

Shopper sentiment

The NRF notes retailers have worked hard to provide a safe shopping environment to consumers in the wake of Covid-19.

The focus on hygiene and safety appears to be paying off, with 70 per cent of holiday shoppers saying that, given the precautions, retailers have taken for Covid-19, they have felt safe shopping in stores this holiday season.

Meanwhile, the preparations that retailers have undertaken for an earlier start to the season are also reaping returns.

Over two-thirds (69 per cent) of holiday shoppers say they are able to find the items they are looking for all or most of the time, and 84 per cent are confident they will receive items they order online in time for the holidays.

“Retailers have demonstrated their commitment and ability to ensure safe shopping environments for their customers and their associates,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay explained.

“With consumers looking to fulfil their gift lists earlier this year, retailers are prepared to meet that demand with deep discounts, robust inventory and providing the best experiences possible whether in-store or online.”

You can learn more about the holiday spending predictions for 2020 here, or see our guide for preparing your store for the busy period ahead.

Despite a tough year, the latest data indicates the US retail sector overall has just enjoyed its fourth straight month of year-on-year gains, with the apparel sector leading the charge in September.

The news comes after a barrage of doom and gloom headlines, and as retailers ready for a holiday season like no other.

So, what’s really going on in retail, and what does it mean for the coming months? Let’s take a quick look at the current retail state of play.

Sales figures

According to data from the US Census Bureau retail sales have been steadily rebounding both month-over-month and year-over-year since June after record declines in spring courtesy of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In May, sales returned to month-on-month growth, making a jump of 18.2 per cent but remained below sales the year prior.

In June, sales returned to modest year-on-year growth of 1.1 per cent and month-on-month growth of 7.5 per cent.

July and August saw the growth trend continue, with July’s figures indicating month-on-month increases of 1.2 per cent and year-on-year growth of 2.7 per cent, while August sales grew a further 0.6 per cent on July and 2.6 per cent year-on-year.

Now, the most recent data indicates September sales figures have spiked 1.9 per cent compared to August and are 5.4 per cent higher than last year.

Noting the impressive September gains, National Retail Federation (NRF) president Matthew Shay said consumers were continuing to prove their resilience and strength despite a challenging year.

“Retailers and consumers are adapting to the current environment, embracing shopping in different ways and focusing on specific categories,” Mr Shay reflected.

Some sectors better than others

A breakdown of the statistics by the NRF indicates some sectors are performing better than others, with apparel leading the charge when it came to month-on-month gains in September.

The NRF noted in September:

• Clothing and clothing accessory stores were up 11 per cent month-over-month seasonally adjusted but down 12 per cent unadjusted year-over-year.

• Sporting goods stores were up 5.7 per cent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 18.3 per cent unadjusted year-over-year.

• General merchandise stores were up 1.8 per cent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 4.1 per cent unadjusted year-over-year. Department stores, a subset of the category, were up 9.7 per cent month-over-month.

• Health and personal care stores were up 1.7 per cent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 7.8 per cent unadjusted year-over-year.

• Building materials and garden supply stores were up 0.6 per cent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 23.4 per cent unadjusted year-over-year.

• Online and other non-store sales were up 0.5 month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 27 per cent unadjusted year-over-year.

• Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 0.5 per cent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 7.5 per cent unadjusted year-over-year.

• Grocery and beverage stores were unchanged month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 11.5 per cent unadjusted year-over-year.

• Electronics and appliance stores were down 1.6 per cent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and down 6.1 per cent unadjusted year-over-year.

Retail winners

While some retailers have undeniably been hit hard by the drop in foot traffic earlier in 2020, other US retailers have either pivoted to adapt or played to their strengths to enjoy a welcome boost in sales.

Retail Dive recently highlighted five of these, with some surprising verticals represented.

They noted pet retailer Chewy benefitted from operating exclusively online as consumers turned their attention to their four-legged friends during a crisis.

Clothing retailer Lululemon enjoyed surprising success in the apparel retailer, which was hit hardest during the initial period of COVID restrictions. Their success lay in the shift to casual attire as more people worked from home.

Critically Lululemon noted physical stores remained integral to their success.

“Our stores are our local hub and communities across the globe, gathering spots for our ambassadors and our connection to local studios, facilitate e-commerce transactions via our ship-from-store and buy online, pick up in-store capabilities and are a portal to bring new guests into our brand, particularly men,” their CEO told Retail Dive.

Dicks Sporting Goods also performed well in the most recent quarter, despite taking an initial hit. Their rebound was largely due to the increase in people working out at home.

Meanwhile, BJ’s wholesale enjoyed growth in sales due to consumers stocking up for the pandemic, and this was accelerated by their introduction of curbside pickup.

Finally, Target was another winner in a vertical where an increase in sales was expected. Their success was above and beyond competitors however, due to e-commerce and services like same-day fulfilment and PickUp, DriveUp.

Where to from here

The NRF believes the continued uptick in sales bodes well for the holiday period ahead, but they are yet to release forecast sales figures due to the uncertainty of the current economic climate.

“We’re optimistic about the prospects for a strong holiday season, as people want something to look forward to and bring joy to their lives,” Mr Shay said.

“While it’s been a challenging year for everyone, there’s been an enormous amount of innovation within the retail industry and retailers have demonstrated that we can keep the economy open and operating safely.”

You can learn more about preparing your loss prevention strategies for the holiday season here

Holiday season 2020

This year’s holiday season is expected to be different from the norm, with consumers remaining cautious about social distancing in the wake of Covid-19.

The National Retail Federation notes that means making predictions about forecast holiday shopping trends and spending is more challenging than normal, but an uptick in spending and retail foot traffic is expected.

With that welcome rise in traffic comes the increased risk of shoplifting. In previous years data has indicated almost half of all US retail theft (46 per cent) occurs in winter, while the Global Retail Theft Barometer notes 81 per cent of that is during the holiday period.

Who is shoplifting?

The combination of busy stores, busy staff, and additional products on display means the holiday retail period attracts both opportunistic shoplifters and those involved in Organized Retail Crime.

Importantly, this theft can be easier for the perpetrator to justify because they either feel it’s an item they need or because stores appear to be making a profit and the sale won’t be missed.

Together, this means retailers need to be on their game in the lead-up to the holiday shopping period, which spans the six weeks prior to Christmas.

So, here’s is a list of the most commonly stolen items and the best protection methods.

Top 10 stolen items

1. Electronics accessories

Whether it’s the latest earbuds, chargers, or a phone case, electronics accessories are frequently targeted due to their small size and appeal as a Christmas present.

They also tend to be sold and displayed in high volumes in stores where the sales associate’s watchful gaze is more likely to be guarding the high-value electronics they come with.

Protecting electronics accessories

Electronics accessories can be protected in a number of ways, including security labels, stop locks, or lockable displays which showcase the accessory behind glass. They can also be secured to the electronic gadget they come with as part of an engaging display.

 

2. Leather clothing

Frequently shoplifted leather clothing ranges from jackets to footwear and caps, but these items are often sought after due to their appeal as both a present and their high resale value on the black market.

Protecting leather clothing

Leather clothing is best protected using EAS security tags with a lanyard or cable that secures the tag to the product. The lanyard or cable avoids the need for the tag pin to pass through the item.

 

3. Electronics

Electronics, like cell phones, tablets, laptops and gaming devices, consistently rank on most consumer’s gift list, while their resale value is also high. That means they are targeted by both organized crime rings and opportunistic shoplifters.

Protecting electronics

The challenge with electronics such as smartphones is that legitimate customers often seek to engage with them prior to purchase. These items are best protected through lockable displays where the device is tethered to a countertop, while additional stock is secured in locked cabinets or drawers.

 

4. Accessories

Spanning a whole gamut of products – from sunglasses to costume jewellery, scarves and more- accessories tend to be easy to steal because of their size and the volume of items on display.

Protecting accessories

The loss prevention method used depends on the type of accessory. Sunglasses can be protected using optical tags, jewelry is protected by a lockable display for high-value items and security labels for low-value products, while scarves might best be protected using clothing security tags.

 

5. Winter clothing

When it comes to shoplifting, winter clothing is frequently stolen by concealing it underneath other garments. That said, it is one of the easiest items to protect.

Protecting winter clothing

Fashion security tags should be deployed on all winter clothing, while retailers should also turn their attention to security in the fitting room, utilising additional EAS tools like the Apparel Guard.

 

6. Meat and seafood

Meat and seafood are of course celebratory food staples throughout the holiday period, and they can be a target of theft by opportune shoplifters looking to save money where possible.

Protecting meat and seafood

Purpose designed food grade tags are available for packaged meats and seafood, while CCTV can assist, along with positioning these items where staff can oversee them.

 

7. Liquor

Liquor is a common target throughout the year, but the festive nature of the holiday season sees theft of alcohol spike.

Protecting Liquor

Top shelf liquor should be protected with purpose-designed liquor security tags, while high volume liquor can be protected by labels.

 

8. Perfume and cologne

Small, often valuable and a popular present, perfumes and cologne are also frequently stolen items, while their resale value also makes them a target for organized crime.

Protecting perfume and cologne

High-value perfumes are generally secured in lockable glass cabinets with only testers on display. Lower value, high volume fragrances are best protected with security labels.

 

9. Children’s toys

It’s hardly surprising to find children’s toys on the shoplifting hit list at Christmas, but protection strategies vary depending on their size, shape and value.

Protecting children’s toys

High value boxed toys can be protected by spider wraps and tags, lower value items are protected with labels, while plush toys of high value can be secured using apparel tags.

 

10. Chocolate

Like liquor, meat and seafood, chocolate is a staple of the festive season and it’s frequently shoplifted as a result.

Protecting chocolate

As chocolate is considered a grocery item of high volume, labels are the loss prevention method of choice.

 

You can order your security tags to protect frequently stolen items this holiday season here, and security labels here.

Meanwhile, our holiday loss prevention checklist is available here.

This year retailers could be forgiven if the holidays were the furthest thing from their mind, but in 12 short weeks, it will officially be Christmas.

Although holiday shopping may look a little different to years gone by, like any other year the lead-up is likely to result in increased foot traffic and increased shoplifting.

So as retailers order products and ready to stock their shelves now is also the time to turn their attention to the electronic article surveillance system protecting their products to ensure it’s ready for the retail rush.

Here is our pre-holiday checklist for EAS.

EAS antenna and infrastructure

Like any piece of technology, the EAS antenna that guards the store requires regular servicing. Now’s the time to ensure the system is working as it should, that false alarms are minimised, and your staff know how to use the system properly.

It could be time to call in the technician if your antenna is regularly sounding false alarms (the sensitivity might be too high) or the system is failing to identify tags in its vicinity.

Meanwhile, as part of general store operations, staff should perform a daily test of the system based on the manufacturer’s instructions prior to opening the retail outlet each morning.

In addition, EAS antenna has an exclusion zone of around three feet around them. This zone should be kept free of displays, products, and even metal or foil decorations to eliminate false alarms. Ensure staff are educated about this.

Checklist

• Have your EAS antenna serviced to ensure it is working properly

• Train staff on the daily procedure of testing the system in accordance with the manufacturer’s instructions

• Consider whether you need additional EAS infrastructure such as a system that guards the changeroom against tag tampering.

Security tags

In the lead-up to the holiday season, retailers should ensure they order sufficient security tags to protect the increased inventory that is held during the holiday shopping period.

This is also a good time to consider whether the strength of your security tags is adequate. Tags come in different locking strengths that range from standard to superlock, hyperlock and multipolar.

If your store is a frequent target of shoplifting, or tags are found on the floor or in the change room, it’s time to upgrade the tag strength.

Similarly, the pinheads that attach the tag to an item are available in different sizes and shapes. The larger the pinhead, the less likely it is to be forced through an item for the tag to be removed.

Meanwhile, additional strategies like benefit denial ink tags can mitigate the potential for shoplifters to tamper with tags

Checklist

• Order any additional tags that will be required

• Upgrade tags to at least superlock strength to mitigate tampering

• Order larger pinheads to minimise tampering and tag removal

• Ensure you have the right tag for the right product – there are tags designed for specific items like eyewear, golf clubs, footwear etc

• Consider whether an additional layer of security may be required in the form of ink dye pinheads

Security labels

With more products passing through your retail outlet, additional security labels will be required to protect high-volume products or items that aren’t suited to tags.

Checklist

• Consider what type of products need protection, and whether you want labels with barcodes included, or wish to print on them yourself

• Order a sufficient number of labels

• Train staff on the positioning of labels – they should be positioned near the barcode for ease of deactivation at the point of sale

Deactivators and detachers

Labels require deactivating, while tags need to be detached. Retailers should ensure there is a sufficient number of tag detachers for all staff manning the Point of Sale, while the label deactivators need to be positioned correctly for swift transactions.

Meanwhile, detachers should be protected to ensure they are not the target of theft.

Checklist

• Check deactivators are working correctly

• Ensure detachers are suited to the strength of tag being used

• Order any additional detachers and deactivators

• Secure detachers at the POS

Staff training

Staff should be properly trained in the use of the EAS system and the positioning of labels and tags. With additional staff likely to be employed prior to the holidays, that makes now the time to look at your training procedures and ensure EAS is covered.

Checklist

• Ensure EAS is covered as part of staff induction

• Management staff should know how to test the antenna system daily

• Do staff know what to do when an alarm sounds?

• Can they identify a real alarm versus tag pollution?

• Are they abreast of the product exclusion zone around the EAS antenna?

• Have you trained them in the positioning of tags and labels?