The five-day Thanksgiving holiday is set to be one of the busiest shopping periods of the year for US retailers, with an estimated 165.3 million people expected to shop between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday.

According to the National Retail Federation, the long weekend of spending will form a major component of the expected $730.7 billion of retail sales across the holiday season.

Here’s an insight into what’s in store…

Peak shopping days

Black Friday is tipped to be the busiest day of the holiday long weekend, with the NRF’s survey indicating 114.6 million people are considering shopping on this day.

It’s followed by Cyber Monday, with 66.6 million people expected to take advantage of an array of online bargains.

Shortly behind Cyber Monday is Small Business Saturday when 66.6 million people are likely to support local and boutique retailers, while 39.6 million consumers are considering shopping on Thanksgiving Day, and a further 33.3 million are likely to hit the stores on the Sunday.

“The tradition of Thanksgiving weekend holiday shopping has become a five-day event with consumers spending money in stores, supporting local small businesses, and online with their mobile devices and computers,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.

“Even as people are starting to purchase gifts earlier in the season, consumers still enjoy finding good Thanksgiving deals and passing time shopping with family and friends over the long holiday weekend.”

The lure of a deal

The promise of a good deal is the reason most people say they’re keen to shop over the Thanksgiving holiday period, with 65 per cent of people saying “the deals are too good to pass up”.

A further 28 per cent will shop out of tradition, while 22 per cent intend to use the occasion to start their holiday shopping, 21 per cent will use shopping as an activity, and a further 17 per cent are looking forward to it as a group activity with friends or family.

Young shoppers the keenest

Meanwhile, young shoppers have expressed the most interest in shopping over the period.

Almost 90 (88 per cent) of shoppers aged 18-24 say they are likely to shop and note particularly enjoy the social aspect.

Similarly, 84 per cent of those ages 25-34 plan to shop, compared to 69 per cent of holiday shoppers overall.

Not just online

In heartening news for bricks and mortar retailers, the Thanksgiving holiday will also likely see slightly more consumers who shop in store than online.

Almost half (47 per cent) of survey respondents indicated they would start their holiday purchasing journey in store, compared to 41 per cent of consumers who planned to start online.

Those under 25 indicate they are even more likely to start shopping in-store (52 per cent).

Others could be convinced

Meanwhile, of the consumers who do not plan to shop, more than half (53 per cent) say something could convince them.

The top things that could change their mind include:

• a sale or discount on an item they want (26 per cent)

• if a family member or friend invites them to shop (12 per cent)

• if they could be sure the items they want are available (11 per cent) or

• a free shipping offer (11 per cent).

The Thanksgiving Holiday weekend commences with a public holiday on November 28 and includes Black Friday on November 29, Small Business Saturday on November 30, Sunday, December 1, and Cyber Monday on December 2.

As retailers head into the thick of the holiday season, Deloitte has released its key predictions for the period ahead, noting consumer sentiment is positive, and convenience, good products and great deals will be high on their holiday wish list.

Here’s an insight into Deloitte’s latest findings and the six retail trends retailers need to know this holiday.

Strong consumer sentiment

After surveying over 4400 people across the US, Deloitte’s 2019 Holiday Retail Survey indicates retailers look set to enjoy a cheerful period ahead.

They tip retail sales will grow 4-4.5 per cent this year with e-commerce expected to increase 14-18 per cent over 2018.

They also note the average consumer will fork out $1496 per household over the holiday period.

Convenience, good products and deals

There will be three main drivers of purchasing habits in the coming weeks, with convenience, good products and great deals among shopper’s major priorities.

The report found:

• 76 per cent of shoppers would be looking for a good product

• 75 per cent would be focused on price

• 65 saw convenience as a key purchasing factor

Free delivery over fast delivery

With the consumer focused on convenience, fast shipping, free shipping and buy online pick up in store (BOPIS) are proving popular offerings.

But of those options, free shipping has emerged as the clear winner.

The report noted 85 per cent of consumers preferred free shipping over fast shipping and were willing to wait three days or more for delivery.

Meanwhile almost half of all consumers intended to use BOPIS in the coming weeks.

Online purchasing to increase

Online spending is tipped to continue outpacing spending instore in 2019, with 59 per cent of money spent over the period expected to be spent online, compared to 36 per cent in-store.

Meanwhile, two thirds of shoppers indicated they will research online and then purchase at least some gifts from a bricks and mortar outlet.

When it comes to the way that shoppers access online, smartphones will be the tool of choice, with 70 per cent of people indicating they will make a purchase with a smart phone, compared to 67 per cent in 2018, and just 59 per cent in 2017.

Inspiration will be found online

Aside from purchasing, consumers will also be seeking much of their gift inspiration online, with half of all shoppers undecided as to what they will buy when they begin holiday shopping.

As a result:

• 65 per cent will turn to online retailers

• 58 per cent will consult search engines

• 52 per cent will visit retail stores

• 40 per cent will visit retailer websites or apps

• 31 per cent will look at review or comparison sites

• 18 per cent will turn to social media

• 18 per cent will look at print media

• 12 per cent will peruse electronic media

• 5 per cent will consult virtual assistants

Shopping to peak early December

Contrary to other years where shopping has peaked in November, this year consumers are expecting to make many of their purchases in early December.

Deloitte notes the trend may be driven by the fact Thanksgiving falls unusually late in 2019, pushing Black Friday to November 29, and Cyber Monday to December 2.

Their research found:

• 35 per cent of consumers expected to purchase holiday season products prior to the end of October

• 44 per cent would purchase between November 1 and 15

• 64 per cent would purchase between November 16 and 30

• 69 per cent would be shopping between December 1 and 15

• 51 per cent would purchase items between December 16 and 31

You can learn more about Deloitte’s predictions here, or see what the National Retail Federation expects of this holiday season here

Retailers may be rubbing their hands together in glee that this year’s peak period is set to deliver strong results, but for many, there will also be a sense of trepidation that the New Year will see a significant portion of those items returned.

Last year, the National Retail Federation found 11 per cent of all holiday sales would be returned for a variety of reasons, with some more legitimate than others.

Here’s an insight into the rising tide of returns, and the top strategies retailers can employ to minimise risk.

An increasing trend

A number of recent reports have illustrated the increasing trend of returns. And in an internet age where customers are set to make more of their holiday purchases online this year, it only stands to reason.

Online purchasing means many consumers do not have had the opportunity to sight, touch or feel an item in person and in the case of apparel they have not had the chance to try that item on. Retailers often seek to accommodate by offering the option of easy and convenient returns in a bid to lure customers in.

Meanwhile, the post-holiday season sees a bump in returns as gift recipients and gift-givers exchange or return unwanted items.

Holiday return stat’s

In 2018, the National Retail Federation found retailers anticipated 10.6 per cent of all annual sales are returned with holiday sales seeing that increase to 11.1 per cent.

Erring on the side of caution, data firm APPRISS put a conservative dollar figure on that amount. Working on a 10 per cent return rate, they noted the value of returns in 2018 equated to $369 billion, while holiday sales returns would be worth approximately $72 billion.

Interestingly, online returns are also impacting bricks and mortar, with the NRF noting many retailers reported seeing more online purchases returned to physical locations, with 37.9 per cent reporting increases in buy online, return in store.

The trouble with returns

Handling returns delivers a wealth of challenges to retailers. On the one hand, both bricks and mortar and online retailers wish to accommodate an increasingly fickle customer, but on the other returns can be time-consuming, resource-intensive and costly. They can also be fraudulent.

In 2018, the NRF found 8.2 per cent of all returns were fraudulent and that rose to 10.3 per cent during the holiday sales.

Meanwhile, the trend of convenient returns is also resulting in a new phenomenon known as the “serial returner”.

The serial returner

Classified as a customer who regularly buys multiple items with the intention of returning some, serial returners are increasing, according to a report by Brightpearl.

They found almost half of customers agree that they will at some point buy multiple items with the intention of sending some back, and retailers have also acknowledged an increasing problem.

In the US, Brightpearl noted 42 per cent of retailers had encountered an uplift in intentional returns between 2017 and 2018.

Handling returns

In May last year, Amazon introduced a lifetime ban on serial returners, in a move which was widely supported by consumers.

Blackpearl explains over a quarter of US survey respondents strongly agreed with the approach, while only seven per cent strongly disagreed and only 11 per cent said they would never shop with an online retailer who imposed this condition.

Their research also found other retailers might be willing to follow suit, with 61 per cent of US retailers saying they would ban serial returners from their website permanently, while fewer than one-quarter were not inclined to follow this approach.

But there are also other options available when it comes to handling returns, as Blackpearl notes.

These include:

• Offering clearer returns policies (supported by 55 per cent of US consumers)

• Introducing a maximum returns quota (supported by 40 per cent of US consumers)

• Limiting the time that customers have to return items (supported by almost 40 per cent of consumers)

• Introducing temporary bans (supported by over 30 per cent of US consumers)

• Limiting offers and promotions (supported by just under 15 per cent of consumers)

• Raising the price of items to cover the cost of returns (supported by just under 15 per cent of consumers)

When it comes to return-fraud, retailers also need to be clear in their return policy and vigilant when refunding items for gift cards or cash. Importantly staff should also be educated in these policies, and return numbers and instances should be regularly reviewed.

You can learn more about this year’s retail holiday predictions here or gain a further insight into the link between shoplifting and return fraud here.